Vol 1. No. 25.Baltimore, MD  Thu July 31st 2014GIVING YOU THE NEWS THE MSM IGNORES 
Our Contributors:
Comments:
Categories


Ubaldo feeling good following first rehab start
Orioles right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez on Wednesday said his right ankle "feels good" following Tuesday's rehab start. He will throw a side session later in the week before pitching this weekend, either on Sunday or Monday for Triple-A Norfolk or for the O's in the following week.

O's prospect Harvey out for season with elbow injury
Hunter Harvey, one of the Orioles top pitching prospects, has been shut down for the season after an MRI done Tuesday revealed he has a strained flexor mass.

Norris aiming to help O's secure series sweep
Bud Norris and the Orioles will bid for a three-game series sweep against Tyler Skaggs and the Angels on Thursday night at Camden Yards.

Jones' 21st homer quick to give O's lift vs. Halos
Adam Jones belted another first-inning homer -- a two-run shot -- while Kevin Gausman logged seven solid frames to help the Orioles earn a 4-3 win over the Angels on Wednesday night.

O's, Sox talks on Lester seem to be on hold
The Orioles have engaged in talks with the Red Sox involving Boston ace left-hander Jon Lester, However, as of Wednesday evening, talks on that front seemed a long ways off and had become much more of a long shot.

Assateague's mane event follows a tradition spanning generations
"Once you've seen it, you've seen it," said Tom Shutt of Hershey, Pa.








On one Baltimore street, two opposing views on Gaza
Rival demonstrators on Charles Street take up Palestinian, Israeli causes

Rival demonstrators on Charles Street take up Palestinian, Israeli causes








Missing woman's body found, boyfriend charged
Police had been searching for Dorothy Grubb, who was reported missing Saturday

Baltimore County police on Wednesday charged a Dundalk man with killing his girlfriend, whose body was found on the side of a road after she was reported missing over the weekend, officials said.







Comments about Baltimore Reporter:

Perhaps the best part of blogging or the internet in general is the occasional discovery of something unexpected.Over on Baltimore Reporter and Conservative Thoughts is a great and thought provoking article by Robert Farrow.I hope you will follow this link and read this great post.

from conservativecontracts.com


I love your blog

Once again - as happens so often - I have been positioned here on the living room couch, immersed in your blog. You are better than Fox News.

Kevin Dayhoff



Awards and Rankings:

Voted one of the best local blogs:
Baltimore Examiner: 2006



Voted Top 10 most influential blog in Maryland in 2007.
Blog Net News



ElseWhere
Other sites I write for:
Flopping Aces
and Red Maryland

Want to help?
Baltimore Reporter is looking for writers to help counter the biased media. Email us if interested.

My Count Since 10/11/07
~ 2516 ~
Site Meter

.

   

8/22/2011

Gallup Shock: Romney Tops Obama, Perry Ties; Bachmann & Ron Paul Close-ish John Ziegler: Having Failed To Embrace Pawlenty, Romney Is the Party’s Only Hope of Defeating Obama
Filed under: — Robert Farrow @ 10:48 pm

—Ace

In the original post, I said I hoped that Perry would grow on the public to the extent he’d match most of Romney’s appeal.

This poll suggests he might.

Romney v. Obama: 48-46; Perry v. Obama: 47-47; Ron Paul v. Obama 45-47; Bachmann v. Obama 44-48.

To some extent, but only some, this rebuts Ziegler’s main point that Obama is still the candidate favored to win and that we must focus almost exclusively on electability.

But, as you can see from the numbers, Obama is not a “sure loser” as has become the fashionable belief among many conservatives. Our best candidate (at the moment) only beats him by a pipsqueak two points, and our best candidate (in the future, I believe) merely ties him.

One guy’s opinion, of course, but I’m a numbers guy, and the numerical case for Romney is strong.

Romney isn’t my guy. Perry is. (And before Perry, Pawlenty.) My belief — or hope, I guess — is that part of Romney’s appeal is that he is familiar to independents and Republican leaners, and therefore not “scary” or otherwise objectionable. And that Perry might be able to similarly become familiar to such voters, and also neither scary nor objectionable.

But that is a hope, only. At the current moment, it is true, as Ziegler says, that Romney is the strongest candidate, at least by the numbers.

Ziegler begins by castigating Republicans into thinking Obama is an almost certain loser, a belief which is then taken by us to mean we have a free hand in putting notions of “electability” firmly out of mind and simply indulging in a hunt to find the fieriest, most implacable foe of liberalism. The long opening of his long, long essay is a refutation of the idea that Obama is a sure loser. He is vulnerable, but only against a candidate that the majority of the country finds unobjectionable and well-qualified.

That’s the reason he supported Pawlenty (and my reasons as well).

But the party refused to consider Pawlently’s on-paper electability. (I should say here that “on paper” is not equal to “real world,” and the party was perhaps wise in deciding that while Pawlenty looked good on paper, he didn’t seem as appealing on the stump or on the stage.)

Which leaves… Romney.

When exactly did Republicans seemingly become so delusional? The first sign that the GOP base had left the gravitational pull of the rational earth in the Obama era was when professional blowhard Donald Trump shot to the top of the presidential polls on the strength of his bogus birth certificate crusade. Fortunately, that particular problem took care of itself (at least for now), but the overall situation may have actually gotten worse. The most troubling part is that the vast majority of the party’s rank and file seems to have no idea the peril its prospects of unseating President Obama are really in.

There is no doubt that Obama is very vulnerable, far more so than most observers (including me) believed likely when he was swept into office by a tidal wave of biased media coverage less than three years ago. His approval ratings are in the low forties, and in many of the battleground states he appears to be a heavy underdog. The census-induced changes in the Electoral College slice his margin of error to almost nothing, and the economy shows very little sign of improving enough to rescue him. He has also left a trail of damningly false televised statements which should make for great attack ad fodder.

And yet the Republican Party appears on the verge of making Obama’s reelection about as likely as the circumstances surrounding his presidency would make possible. Consequently, this golden opportunity to help the country largely dodge the Obama bullet is on the verge of being squandered.

While the vast majority of conservatives (including many prominent commentators) would find that notion laughable, the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that, thanks largely to their predilection for seeing reality through overly optimistic and star-spangled glasses, they are dangerously out of touch.

The first misunderstanding that has led to this dangerous case of Republican hubris is the nature of the polling data. When the average conservative thirsting to see Obama be a one-termer hears that his “approval rating” is in the low forties (or even lower) they seem to think this means that almost sixty percent of the voting public has decided that they are unlikely to vote for him next year, but this is far from the truth.

Plenty of people have no problem saying now that they “disapprove” of a president in 2011 and still decide not to vote him out of office in 2012. In fact, saying they “disapprove” of the president’s job performance doesn’t even mean that they want him replaced at the instant they are asked.

The best way to think of this may be to consider the president as the national spouse. Plenty of wives may say at any given moment (especially when the honeymoon is long over and things seem to be going poorly) that they “disapprove” of the job that their husband is doing, but that doesn’t mean they are necessarily going to leave him for someone else, particularly when there is no other specific option available at the time.

Another red herring in the political data is the “Obama vs. Generic Republican” number, which could not be more deceiving. Currently, Obama regularly loses nationally to this fictitious candidate, but if anything, these numbers show just how unlikely it really is that he will actually be defeated. When a poll respondent processes that question they conjure up the image of Republican who has no major blemishes and has yet to have their entire careers picked apart by a media all too eager to destroy them.


Currently, despite all of his recent problems, no named candidate comes close to beating Obama in an actual head to head matchup except Mitt Romney.

Of course, none of the leading or even potential Republican candidates comes close to fitting the ‘generic” description either. Ironically, the one candidate who came by far the closest, Tim Pawlenty, ended up, through little fault of his own, being the very first to be knocked out of the race.

The early demise of the Pawlenty campaign tells you everything you need to know about how this delusion/ignorance regarding political realities is stunting the Republican nominating process in a way Obama should only be able to dream about. Pawlenty was the one candidate who clearly would have made the election an unambiguous referendum on Obama. That is a battle which, even with the media on his side, the president cannot win unless the economy makes an unexpected recovery.

Pawlenty’s campaign was doomed by some of the very qualities which made it so attractive to those who understand how a national presidential election works in the modern age. He was seen as “boring” by a Republican electorate that is clearly looking to be highly stimulated. But in his case ‘boring” also meant “electable.”

Ziegler is very down on Perry, for the reasons people typically say they’re down on Perry: He’s too similar to Bush; as a Texan (and a born and bred one, unlike Bush), he won’t play in the swing states of the mideast, which will be inclined against him for reasons of cultural animus; and he tends to say “scary” things which gladden Tea Partiers but turn off the middle, which wants a correction to Obama, and not an equal-but-opposite Revolution, with the nation now veering hard to the right after veering hard to the left just three years ago.

I keep thinking that this stuff is first-blush resistance and will not persist. If the country found the culture of Texas to be palatable in 2000 and 2004, why would they suddenly find Texas to be a barbaric rowdy-land with any citizen of that state culturally and politically suspect?

Due to Bush, I suppose, but this chain of thought relies on the proposition that the public literally cannot tell one man from another, and will think that Perry pretty much is George Bush, a proposition I find sort of daffy.

As for fiery rhetoric — well, you need some of that. And, for good or for ill, Perry is in fact suddenly not quite so down on Social Security as he was a couple of years ago.

But I do take Ziegler’s point. In a recent poll, Romney edges Obama by one in Florida while Perry loses by five. Should that situation persist into 2012, then I’ll have to revisit my own assumptions about Perry’s electability, and take a second look at Romney.

Ziegler thinks Palin will run, by the way, but for reasons Palin supporters will sharply diagree with:

I continue to believe that Sarah Palin has no choice but to get in the race. While I am no longer in contact with her or her team after I came out against her running, everything I observed from the “inside” indicated to me that she was very open to running and nothing since then has changed my mind about that.

Her brand depends on her running because if she doesn’t, her followers will feel let down and she will have no apparent next act. Once there are two new nominees on the 2012 ticket, she is old news with no office to change her narrative. By 2016 she would be ancient history with either a Republican president in office or with a brand new crop of highly qualified challengers ready to pounce on what should be the slam dunk of replacing a term-limited Obama.

My prediction is that she gets in and runs almost exclusively an air war intended to create the appearance of a real primary campaign without any of the hassles. She knows that her vote is pretty much set in stone and it won’t be impacted much, if at all, by creating a traditional organization. If she is as smart as I think she is, her goal would be to exceed low expectations and finish a respectable second to Romney and thus use the campaign to change minds about her for the future. In a sense, she would then become a hybrid of Romney and Mike Huckabee after 2008: technically “unemployed” but well known and respected enough to sustain her viability into the future.

If things break her way, she could end up as the last Tea Party Star standing up against Romney (not counting Ron Paul) and it would be possible that Romney would not be popular enough with the base to reach the vote threshold needed to put her away. Still, she could not beat Romney in a protracted battle because, as Obama proved in 2008, winning a delegate battle is still all about organization, an area when Romney would dominate Palin, who frankly may not even want to actually win the nomination.

On that point — Sarah Palin’s plans — “sources” close to her say that the September 3rd rally is “unlikely” to be an announcement. And might be more of a “campaign test,” as Ed Morrissey calls it.

The event will pose a significant test for Singleton and the rest of the all-volunteer army of Palin devotees who have for months been quietly paving the way for a presidential run that would be fueled by a dedicated core of political novices.

I have suggested myself recently that Palin is honest when she says she’s still making up her mind, and that these various campaign-like events are a vehicle for stoking interest and gauging interest; presumably, if she finds a strong demand that she run, that will prompt her to do so.

On the other hand, there are the numbers. From Rasmussen, which is not a Democratic polling firm:

If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls….

Last month, Obama posted a 47% to 38% lead over Palin, the GOP’s unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2008.

Palin earns support from 62% of Republicans, while 88% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

Obama holds a narrow 44% to 38% lead over Palin among male voters, but women prefer the incumbent by a sizable 56% to 29% margin.

I continue to not understand how committed Palin supporters simply discount numbers like this, as if we’re just making this shit up to spite them. Or how public attitudes towards Palin will shift dramatically in the next year, despite these attitudes being persistent for almost three years now.

I don’t get the plan here — will she start saying different things? Or saying them in a different way? If she did, wouldn’t she be a different candidate, and hence not the Sarah Palin currently being urged to run?

What is the mechanism proposed by which such dreadful general election numbers will reverse themselves in a year?

I really do get the feeling this has become faith-based. Not truly religious, mind you, but based at heart on faith that Palin will be able to fix all this “once she decides to run” despite the strong evidence that during the past three years of partially running for President she’s made no progress whatsoever in improving her public standing, and in fact has seen further erosions of support.

This is why these arguments over Palin get so heated, I think. At heart, her supporters wish the non-supporters to have faith in her, and we simply don’t.

As I’ve said ad nauseam, if political strategy were capable of reversing years of public disregard of Sarah Palin, surely we would see that strategy already in motion, and already bearing fruit.

I just can’t buy into this idea that I’m to have “faith” that she has a “secret plan” which for unexplained reasons must wait another several months for implementation, and could not have been executed in 2009 or 2010.

There is no secret plan. There is no trap about to be sprung, there is no brilliant strategy about to be executed.

Again, if there were, there is no earthly reason it couldn’t have gone into effect a year or two years ago.

The Secret Brilliance of Her Resignation: When Palin resigned, I said she had essentially foreclosed any possibility of seeking the presidency.

But a lot of people disagreed, sharply. An idea percolated on the right of the blogosphere that she had brilliantly “changed the game,” that she had “shot the hostage” (a reference to a gambit in the action movie Speed) and that, by forfeiting her office, she had in fact elevated her chances of becoming president, now able to preside over national issues without being bothered with lawsuits and the the daily routine of governance.

I said this theory was all wet at the time. I was called a RINO, asshole, etc. for saying so.

Well, not to rub too much salt in this particular wound, but I was right.

The “game” was not “changed,” and the “hostage” might have been “shot,” but so was Palin’s status as a top-tier presidential prospect.

But this seems simply ignored, and those who insisted that the resignation was a Machievellian masterstroke now invite skeptics to join them in believing in a new plan — this one, secret — which will do for Palin what the resignation was supposed to.

That a resignation would be regarded as a good move for a presidential prospect was always daffy wishcasting.

At some point, results and empirical data must mean something. Palin was predicted by many to have “changed the game” and become the front-runner for 2012 in mid-2009. It’s now 2011, and her position has eroded still further, but predictions continue to be made that this time the ducks are all in a row and she’s ready to take off.

Comments

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Leave a comment

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.







Search

 
Baltimore Weather

Current Conditions:
Fair, 64 F
TheCaffeinatedMind.com
In the USA who still makes up the smallest minority?
An Asian
A Black
An Individual
A White


View results
Version 2.03
FACING UP TO THE
Nation's Finances
National Debt Clock

Monroe anchors Flacco's blind side as Ravens LT (The Associated Press)
Eugene Monroe is right where he wants to be: anchoring the left side of the Baltimore Ravens offensive line. The Ravens hope he stays there a long time, as evidenced by the five-year, $37.5 million contract they gave him in March. The bar at left tackle is high in Baltimore, given that the team's first-ever draft pick was tackle Jonathan Ogden, now a member of the Hall of Fame. Since Ogden's retirement after the 2007 season, however, the Ravens have struggled to find a permanent answer at the position.

NFL roundup: Cowboys LT Smith signs eight-year extension (The SportsXchange)
The Dallas Cowboys signed left tackle Tyron Smith to an eight-year extension worth close to $98 million. The total value of the deal is close to $110 million.

Steelers to retire Hall of Famer Greene's No. 75 (The Associated Press)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are retiring Hall of Fame defensive end Joe Greene's number No. 75. The team announced Wednesday that Greene will be honored during a ceremony on Nov. 2 when the Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens. Greene, the fourth overall pick in the 1969 NFL draft, helped Pittsburgh win four Super Bowls during his 13-year career. The announcement comes just over a month after the passing of former Steelers coach Chuck Noll, who drafted Greene to become the cornerstone of the ''Steel Curtain'' defense.

Steelers to retire Greene's No. 75 (The SportsXchange)
The Pittsburgh Steelers announced Wednesday they will retire Hall of Fame defensive tackle Joe Greene's No. 75 in a ceremony on Nov. 2. The Steelers will host the Baltimore Ravens at Heinz Field that day. Greene's number will become just the second that the Steelers retired, joining Ernie Stautner in achieving that distinction. Greene, the leader of the "Steel Curtain" defense during the 1970s, helped lead the Steelers to four Super Bowl victories and six AFC Championship game appearances.

Browns hope they are on the run in 2014 (The SportsXchange)
The Cleveland Browns scored only four rushing touchdowns last season and managed just 1,383 yards on the ground, so in the offseason general manager Ray Farmer made a point of changing that unit. Four days into training camp, running back is the most improved segment of the offense. Ben Tate is running with the first team, but rookie third-round draft pick Terrance West is pressing him. Tate, West and undrafted rookie Isaiah Crowell are new.

Tuesday's Sports In Brief (The Associated Press)
The NCAA agreed to help athletes with head injuries in a proposed settlement of a class-action lawsuit that college sports' governing body touted as a major step forward but that critics say doesn't go nearly far enough. The deal, filed in U.S. District Court in Chicago, calls for the NCAA to toughen return-to-play rules for players who receive head blows and create a $70 million fund to pay for thousands of current and former athletes to undergo testing to determine whether they suffered brain trauma while playing football and other contact sports. Unlike a proposed settlement in a similar lawsuit against the NFL, this deal does not set aside any money to pay players who suffered brain trauma. BASEBALL LOS ANGELES (AP) - Vin Scully is staying in the booth for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Team Report - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (The SportsXchange)
Davis reports to 49ers camp

Team Report - NEW YORK GIANTS (The SportsXchange)
RB Wilson exits practice with 'burner'

Team Report - DALLAS COWBOYS (The SportsXchange)
Garrett not in make-or-break situation

AP source: Gordon hires attorney, plans defense (The Associated Press)
Josh Gordon has a new, high-profile teammate to help him fight the NFL. Facing an indefinite suspension for marijuana use, Cleveland's talented wide receiver has hired attorney Maurice Suh to represent him at his appeal hearing with the league this week, a person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press. Suh, who helped Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman win an appeal for a suspension in 2012, will be with Gordon in New York on Friday, according to the person who spoke to The Associated Press on Tuesday on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the talks.

NFL roundup: Seahawks' Winston signs for one year (The SportsXchange)
Eric Winston signed a one-year deal with the Seattle Seahawks, who envision the eight-year veteran at right tackle. In addition to signing Winston, the Seahawks placed wide receiver Taylor Price on injured reserve, released cornerback Chandler Fenner and guard Bronson Irwin and signed wide receiver Randall Carroll and cornerback Terrell Thomas. Thomas, a USC product recruited by Carroll, was a second-round pick of the New York Giants in 2008. ---Arizona Cardinals linebacker John Abraham remained absent from training camp on Tuesday and the team had no indication as to when he might show up.
Maryland News
Links To Others
Maryland Blogger Alliance

National News
Support the Baltimore Reporter. Buy a C.D.



Thank You












Advertise with Us!
Baltimore Reporter is looking for advertisers to help keep this site going. Email us here.
]
Please ignore the screen cleaner!